Premier League 2023/24 predictions

With a couple of weeks until the window shuts, I thought it was time to put out my predictions for the new Premier League season. I wanted to give it a round of fixtures to see how teams would line up and play before making the final decisions, but overall my thoughts didn’t change too much.

So let’s get started:

20th place: Sheffield United

It’s obviously not uncommon to have at least one of the promoted teams at the bottom of the table, but while many may have Luton in last place I have gone with Sheffield United. They have made a few interesting signings, but losing both Sander Berge and Iliman Ndiaye in the same window is pretty disastrous for the Blades. Ndiaye was their best player in the Championship last season, and even just a half of the 25 goal involvements he had could’ve been crucial for Sheffield United’s survival. They only lost 1-0 in their opening game against Crystal Palace, but those are the games, especially at home, that they should aim to squeeze out at least a draw. Unfortunately, I can only see a challenging season ahead for the Blades.

19th place: Luton Town

Just above them, I have one of the other promoted teams, Luton Town. I feel like Sheffield United and Luton are pretty even and they could easily have swapped places, but I think Luton will have the defensive solidity to keep them from ending up bottom. They haven’t spent a lot of money, however, Marvelous Nakamba, Tahith Chong, and Ryan Giles will be familiar names to many Premier League fans. While they will be important for Luton this season, I ultimately don’t think it will be enough, and as a result, they will likely be the second promoted team to go back down.

18th place: Wolverhampton

But it won’t be a clean sweep for the promoted clubs, as I think Wolves will be the third and final team to go down. It just feels like a club on the verge of implosion at the moment, which culminated in Julen Lopetegui walking just before the season started. Gary O’Neil has come in, and although he did a sensational job keeping Bournemouth up last season, I think this is just too tough a task. Losing Ruben Neves, Nathan Collins, Conor Coady, Raul Jimenez, Adama Traore and Joao Moutinho in the same window doesn’t bode well, and even though all of them may not still have been key players, they are losing a lot of both quality and experience. The incomings aren’t looking too inspiring either. So after a few good seasons, I think it might be the end for Wolverhampton.

17th place: Everton

Yes, I think they’ll do it again. Everton have flirted with relegation for a few seasons now, and I don’t think this year will be any different. They have managed to ship Moise Kean back to Juventus for 30 million euros, but also lost Yerry Mina as his contract ran out. Their incomings looks decent though, with Arnaut Danjuma and Jack Harrison coming in on loan and Ashley Young on a free, which could be wise for experience, if nothing else. I must admit I do not know a whole lot about Chermiti who they signed from Sporting, but another centre forward can’t go amiss at Goodison Park. While Everton might face some challenging situations this year as well, I believe they will manage to stay up once again.

16th place: Fulham

Fulham had a fantastic season last year, and finishing 10th was a huge success for them. As far as transfers go, I think they’ve done alright so far. With no major departures and the signings of Raul Jimenez and Adama Traore from Wolves, as well as Calvin Bassey from Ajax, it looks like good business for now. The elephant in the room is obviously Aleksandar Mitrovic, and whether he moves to Saudi Arabia as has been heavily rumoured during the whole summer. It was also the case for manager Marco Silva, but he looks like he’ll stay now. We saw last season when Mitrovic was suspended that Fulham really struggled without him, so if he were to leave, Fulham could face some problems.

15th place: Nottingham Forest

After signing about 300 players last summer Nottingham Forest managed to stay in the league, which was likely their objective for the season. With a more settled squad now, and the additions of Ola Aina, Matt Turner, Chris Wood and Anthony Elanga I actually think they will make progress this season and finish 15th. Wood is a decent backup for Awoniyi, and with Elanga and Brennan Johnson on the wings they have a very solid attack which could prove crucial for their survival. I’m also a big fan of Morgan Gibbs-White and Danilo in midfield, but I can see the loss of Keylor Navas being significant for them. Turner is good, but Navas single-handedly won them points at the end of last season. I don’t think it will be all that decisive though, and Forest will finish well clear of relegation.

14th place: Burnley

I am maybe not as high on Burnley as most people, but I still believe they will finish in a respectable 14th place. They are a significantly different team from the Dyche-Burnley we all remember, but that could work both ways. They looked really good at times when they faced Manchester City in the season opener, but ultimately lost 3-0. No biggie, that could happen to everyone when playing City, but I think there’s a possibility that they could get caught out against lesser teams as well. On the other hand, I also think they’ll cause some of the bigger teams real problems, and Turf Moor might ACTUALLY become a tough place to go now, as opposed to the false myth that has been thrown around for the past few year.

13th place: Bournemouth

Okay, so this might seem high considering they only just escaped relegation last season, and a lot of people are tipping them to go down. It might just be false optimism, but I really like some of the business they have done in the summer. Alex Scott was one of the best players in the Championship last season, Justin Kluivert could prove to be a really clever pick up and Max Aarons is a solid right back with some Premier League experience. Jefferson Lerma is a big loss for them, especially when he’s leaving on a free, but they still have Phillip Billing who was brilliant last season. He’s not as defensively solid as Lerma, but with Scott coming in to play the more advanced role, Billing might have to take on some more defensive duties this season.

12th place: Crystal Palace

Crystal Palace just perennially floats between 11th and 14th, and I think that continues this season. Hodgson actually got them playing some very good football after he came in March, and I think they could be a fun team to follow this season as well. They have acquired the aforementioned Jefferson Lerma from Bournemouth to shore up the midfield, and Matheus Franca from Flamengo who looks like an interesting young player. The obvious miss for them is Wilfried Zaha leaving for Galatasaray. He has been their best player for a number of years, and a constant threat even against the best teams in the league. As I’m writing this, it also looks like Michael Olise could be on his way to Chelsea, which would be a way bigger loss than Zaha in my opinion. Even if Olise goes though, I’d still back them to finish around mid table.

11th place: West Ham

On the back of European success, I believe West Ham will climb a few places from their 14th place finish last season. They sold Declan Rice for a massive amount and basically broke even on Gianluca Scamacca who didn’t really work out, so they have money to spend. So far, that money has been spent on Edson Alvarez from Ajax and James Ward-Prowse from relegated Southampton. I think both of those transfers makes sense for West Ham, but they could probably do with a reliable striker to take that next step. Another key to West Ham’s success is the improved form of Lucas Paqueta. He had a slow start to last season, but towards the business end he really found his feet and produced some excellent performances. On the whole, I think West Ham’s squad is good enough to finish higher than they did last season, even with the loss of Declan Rice.

10th place: Brentford

My first team in the top half is Brentford. They finished 9th last season, but Ivan Toney’s ban makes me think they’ll take a small step backwards. They also loaned out goalkeeper David Raya to Arsenal, but Mark Flekken should be an adequate replacement. Nathan Collins from Wolves is a good signing, and if Kevin Schade hits the ground running, it would make the absence of Toney more bearable. The base of the team is still intact also, which will help them maintain consistency throughout the season, and they still have firepower up top with Mbuemo and Wissa. Brentford avoided the dreaded second season dip, and I think they’ll have a good 3rd season as well.

9th place: Aston Villa

After a very solid second half of the season when Unai Emery came in, it might feel harsh to put Villa this far down, but I still think they’ll be quite good. Their main problem isn’t themselves, but the underperforming teams getting their act together and finishing in the place they should. They’ve had a tremendous transfer window, getting in Moussa Diaby, Pau Torres and Youri Tielemans for a combined sum of roughly £80m. Diego Carlos is also back from the achilles injury he suffered last season, but now Tyrone Mings is out with an ACL injury. Carlos and Torres could be a brilliant partnership at the back, and Diaby will give them that x-factor they need up top. Villa will have a good season (I also wouldn’t be surprised if they follow in West Ham’s footsteps and find success in the Conference League), but will finish lower in the table on the back of other teams getting back to their best.

8th place: Brighton

The same kinda goes for Brighton. They have sold some key players in Moises Caicedo and Alexis Mac Allister, but Brighton always seem to have a young, South American talent to take over for a big money sale, so they will probably be okay in that sense. De Zerbi also seems to get the best out of every player, and the system is more important than individuals. Joao Pedro is a good signing, as is Bart Verbruggen, while Mahmoud Dahoud and James Milner on free transfers will provide experience in midfield. The battle against xG has always been Brighton’s biggest problem, but Evan Ferguson looks like the real deal, and will probably be sold in a year or two for a British record fee after scoring bucketloads for Brighton.

7th place: Tottenham

I like Ange Postecoglou and think Tottenham have some very good players, but I just can’t look past the departure of Harry Kane. Losing that many goals and the influence he had on the team is just not something you can easily replace. It leaves a huge burden on Heung Min Son’s shoulders, and Richarlison has to seriously step up his game if Tottenham don’t make any other forward signings. The permanent signing of Dejan Kulusevski I like a lot, Micky van de Ven is a solid defensive addition, but the jewel in the crown is obviously the signing of James Maddison. He will provide some much needed creativity from midfield, which means that the attackers won’t have to do what Kane did when he dropped into midfield to receive the ball and create. Overall Tottenham might struggle a little, but I think Ange will bring some much needed stability to the club, which hasn’t really been seen since the Pochettino days.

6th place: Newcastle

Newcastle had a brilliant campaign last season which led them to a Champions League spot, but I think that could somehow hamper them a bit during this season. They have been used to playing one game a week, and once they start playing midweek-weekend for longer periods of time, I think they’ll end up dropping some points they wouldn’t have done last year. They have made some good signings that will either strengthen their first eleven or give them strength in depth, but is it enough to compete on all fronts? I’m not so sure. I think they have the quality to get out of their Champions League group (in most scenarios at least) and get top four, but the margins are so small between the clubs competing for top four that the extra games could prove too much for Newcastle. I still think they’ll play some great football and maybe even pick up some domestic silverware though, which probably would be seen as a good season if they could also make it to the Ro16 or quarters of the Champions League.

5th place: Chelsea

Just missing out on top 4, but making huge improvements from last season will be Chelsea. They have got rid of a lot of deadwood and also signed some brilliant players in addition to getting a quality manager in Mauricio Pochettino. I know a lot of Chelsea fans will be frustrated that Mason Mount was sold to a rival, but they also got a hefty sum of cash for a player with one year left on his contract. If not for his injury, I think Nkunku would’ve been phenomenal for them, but it’s hard to say when he’s out at least until Christmas. Moises Caicedo and Romeo Lavia (probably) will be quality additions to the midfield, while Nicolas Jackson could prove to be a bargain and a striker that Chelsea have sorely been lacking. I don’t get why they would be going for Michel Olise when they already have quite a bit of depth on the flanks, but he is a brilliant player and would probably get a fair share of minutes. The lack of European football is also an important factor for why I think Chelsea will finish all the way up in 5th.

4th place: Manchester United

Okay, so I’ve been going back and forth between who will finish 3rd and 4th, but in the end I settled for Manchester United. I think Erik Ten Hag did a fine job last season in getting United into the top 4 and finding a bit of stability at the club. I think he dealt very well with the Ronaldo situation, and although they had a shaky patch towards the end of the season they found some form for the final couple of games to sneak into 3rd. I actually think the Red Devils will be quite good this season too, although there’s still some question marks surrounding parts of the squad. Is Rasmus Højlund good enough to make the striker position his own during his first season? Is a Mount-Casemiro-Bruno midfield balanced enough to compete at the highest level? We’ll have to see. I think Onana is a very good signing, and although his confidence with the ball at his feet could see him caught out a couple of times before he fully settles in, I think he will end up being just fine. I’m also of the opinion that it’s possible for United to make progress while still finishing a spot lower than they did last season, and that that will be the case.

3rd place: Liverpool

To start off, I’ll make it clear that I’m placing Liverpool 3rd based on the assumption that they end up signing a starting number 6. Missing out on both Caicedo and Lavia is pretty disastrous, but now they HAVE to get someone else in before the window closes. Szoboszlai and Mac Allister are both excellent signings in my opinion, but they need more to replace the ones that have left. Keita, Milner and Oxlade-Chamberlain are good squad players, but didn’t play too many minutes, but losing both Henderson and Fabinho makes it imperative to get at least one more midfielder in, and ideally also a left sided centre back to fit the new system. They looked really open at the back in the opening game against Chelsea, but a getting in a true defensive midfielder and being able to push Mac Allister further up the pitch should fix a lot of those problems, and with the plethora of attacking options goals shouldn’t be an issue. I find it hard to place Liverpool this season to be honest, but with the right end to the window, I don’t think 3rd is too egregious.

2nd place: Arsenal

Last season was both a huge opportunity missed, but also a season where Arsenal took massive steps and showed that the trust that’s been put in Mikel Arteta is warranted. Losing the league to City is not something to be ashamed of, but being top for so long and then falling off during the final 10 games will still leave a lot of Arsenal fans disappointed, but also hopeful for what’s coming. Their summer window has been very good, bringing in Declan Rice for north of £100m, Kai Havertz, Jurrien timber and also David Raya on loan. Rice is a quality addition to their midfield, and while I believe he’s a bit overpriced, that’s just how the market is these days. Timber looked to be one of the bargains of the summer, but unfortunately he suffered an ACL injury in the opening game of the season which will likely keep him out for the majority of the season. Luckily they still have quality options in the positions that Timber can play, but squad depth could prove an issue if they were to go deep in multiple competitions. I think Arsenal will build on what they did last season, but ultimately fall short once again to last seasons champions.

1st place: Manchester City

Yes, they will do four in a row. Last seasons treble winners didn’t look like they had lost a step in their opener against Burnley, and while some people say that City look weaker this season based on the transfer business, I think that’s massively overblown. The only players of note they have lost are Ilkay Gündogan and Riyad Mahrez, and while I don’t doubt for a second that especially Gündogan will be a big miss, Matteo Kovacic seems like a player that will slot perfectly into a Pep midfield and be very effective. He might to have the goals that Gündogan had, but come on, City have goals coming from all over the pitch. Josko Gvardiol also seems like he would be ideal for the left back/left centre back position in City’s system, and could maybe do that to an even higher standard than Nathan Aké did last season. De Bruyne’s injury is obviously a massive blow for City, but they have shown before that they are able to play well and get results without him, and I’m sure Pep will find a way to do so this time too. I’m not sure if Manchester City will be able to replicate last season’s success over multiple competitions, if so that would be quite something, but I am confident that they will retain the league again.

So that was my Premier League predictions for the 2023/24 season. Will I get it all right? Almost certainly not, but I gave it my best go.