Trying to make sense of Liverpool’s summer overhaul
Much has been said about Liverpool’s transfer strategy and squad planning, but there’s no doubt that a major overhaul is needed. It’s probably too much to be done all in one window, though a good summer transfer window is essential for the club to get back to the levels they did show in seasons prior.
I will do my best to make sense of the whole situation, looking at every position in detail to figure out who needs to stay and who needs to go, whether it’s on loan or permanent. Like I said though, it is most likely not possible to address all areas in the coming transfer window, so it’s all about prioritising the right areas and acting decisively on it.
GOALKEEPER
Okay, so this one seems pretty straightforward. You could make a very good argument for Alisson Becker being the best in the world in his position, and he is one of the few who can keep his head held high after this season. Liverpool have conceded 36 goals from 48.4 xG* in the Premier League this season, the second highest differential in the league only topped by Fulham. And while this isn’t all down to Alisson, I think it’s fair to say that Liverpool would be much worse off if they didn’t have the Brazilian between the sticks. So he obviously stays, but the more pressing question is what happens with second choice keeper Caoimhín Kelleher. He has been very good when he has been called upon, but at 24 years of age he is most likely looking for regular first team football going forward. This isn’t something Liverpool can offer him at this point in time, so although he’s a brilliant second choice have, I could see Liverpool selling him if a decent offer is on the table. Adrian’s contract is up in the summer, and will likely not be renewed, meaning Liverpool could be left without a backup keeper. Marcelo Pitaluga will be back from loan, but if Kelleher were to leave I can see Liverpool trying to get in a more experienced second choice goalkeeper similar to what Manchester City did with Stefan Ortega last summer. As Liverpool have been briefly linked with Club Brugge goalkeeper Bart Verbruggen he will be the one I write down, but in reality it can be any keeper of that ilk.
IN: Bart Verbruggen (£10m)
OUT: Adrian (Free), Caoimhín Kelleher (£15-20m)
DEFENCE
The defence has been a problem for Liverpool this season. With eight games to go, they’ve already conceded more goals than 21/22, 19/20 and 18/19 and only 6 less than 20/21 when there was a huge centre-back crisis. There has been criticism towards both individual and the system, but the problem probably lies somewhere in between. Yes, the system has left the defence massively exposed this season, but players like Virgil van Dijk, Joel Matip, Joe Gomez, Trent Alexander-Arnold and Andy Robertson has not been up to their usual standards either. Ibrahima Konaté, although not faultless, has been Liverpool’s best defender this season and has been sorely missed when out injured. With Klopp lately trying out a system that gets Trent more on the ball in midfield areas (but still starting at right back and playing there in the defensive set up) they might look for a different profile of player to what was originally the plan.
Although he still gets up the pitch a lot, we’ve seen Andy Robertson a bit further back then he usually is, so it will be interesting to see if Klopp is interested in a player who can both play LCB and LB. Someone like Joško Gvardiol would fit that profile but he would also be very expensive, so although he has been linked maybe a cheaper alternative is more realistic. Evan Ndicka, who is out of contract at Eintracht Frankfurt this summer has also been briefly linked and would be a very astute signing, especially on a free. He has been heavily rumoured to be joining Barcelona though, but it might still be worth having a look at.
I would also not be surprised if Liverpool tested the waters to see how much they could get for either Joe Gomez or Joel Matip. Matip only has one year left on his contract, and Joe Gomez has age on his side as well as filling the home-grown quota, so it may be more likely to see Matip leave the club in the summer. That leaves the club with the need to sign a player who would ideally be backup to VVD in a 433 system, but who has quality enough to be a starter should Liverpool want him to play Robertson’s role in the system that transitions into a 3 at the back in possession. If Gvardiol doesn’t fit within the budget, Liverpool have also been linked to Levi Colwill who could be a good alternative.
There’s also an interesting predicament around the right back position, with Calvin Ramsay being signed last summer without really featuring a whole lot. Trent Alexander-Arnold is an incredible footballer and absolutely perfect for the Liverpool system when it’s working properly, but he can’t play every game. Finding a player which profiles similarly to Trent is a tough task, especially considering he would not be the first choice. I am still willing to give Ramsay another season before a loan is considered, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Liverpool were in the market for a second choice RB in the summer either.
IN: Evan Ndicka (FREE)
OUT: Joel Matip (£10-15m)
MIDFIELD
And now, let’s get on with the most pressing issue (no pun intended). Liverpool’s midfield has needed a revamp for a few years, and it’s at a point now where a huge turnover is needed, instead of just phasing out one or two players. Arthur Melo will of course return to Juventus after a less than successful loan move, while both Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain and Naby Keita’s contracts are up in the summer. Stefan Bajectic has been a revelation in midfield, but leaving the responsibilities on an 18 year old isn’t a situation you should be in in the first place.
So after the eventual departures, that leaves Liverpool with the following midfield options: Fabinho, Stefan Bajcetic, Thiago, Curtis Jones, Jordan Henderson, Harvey Elliott and James Milner (Could add Fabio Carvalho, but he has played both as a forward and midfielder). Fabinho has been far below his usual standards, as has Jordan Henderson who is also getting older. Thiago has been decent when fit, which sadly hasn’t been often enough. Curtis Jones hasn’t had the progression most hoped he would have (although in the last few games he’s looked good when playing in the new system), and Milner shouldn’t need to play as much football as he has done this season. Elliott and Bajcetic have been impressive, but they are also young players who shouldn’t necessarily have to be relied upon to be full time starters. Fabio Carvalho hasn’t featured a whole lot, and could probably benefit with a loan in order to get more game time.
Now for the incomings. The whole Jude Bellingham saga could probably lend itself to an entire article by itself, but that’s for another time. To keep it short, it probably makes sense to buy two or three new midfielder this summer rather than to spend it all on one player, but waiting two years for Bellingham an not signing other midfielders, only to then back down a few months before the window opens. Though this might just be a negotiation tactic, let’s assume that Bellingham is off the table for this summer and look at other alternatives instead. The two Brighton lads Moises Caicedo and Alexis Mac Allister have both been linked, both of which would be very good signings. Caicedo would probably be the better signing, but also has a slightly higher price tag. There’s also Nicolo Barella, who might become available for a reasonable fee because Inter need to raise some money in the summer, Barella and Bastoni are probably their two most valuable assets, both of which could be of interest to Liverpool (Bastoni for CB). It might sound simplistic, but something Liverpool desperately need in midfield is fresh legs, something all of these players would bring to the table among other important qualities. In total, Liverpool should probably go for one midfielder in the 60-80m bracket, one in the 40-60m and a third that costs between 20-30m, totalling a little more than the price that Jude Bellingham would cost, which according to reports will be around 130m. Barella, Caicedo and Mac Allister would all fall in the 60-80m category, while another man Liverpool have been linked with in Ryan Gravenberch is rumoured to be in the upper end of the 20-30m bracket. That leaves the 40-60m bracket, where a trip to Portugal could be a clever idea. Manuel Ugarte profiles very well for the Liverpool system, and would likely cost around the 50m mark. Gravenberch, Ugarte and either one of Mac Allister, Caicedo and Barella would be a very good midfield turnover, and although it would be disappointing not getting Jude Bellingham over the line, it’s probably the smarter thing to do this summer.
IN: Moises Caicedo (£80m), Manuel Ugarte (£50m), Ryan Gravenberch (£25m)
OUT: Arthur Melo (End of loan), Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain (End of contract), Naby Keita (End of contract)
ATTACK
The attack is not nearly as interesting to discuss as the midfield and defence when it domes to incomings and outgoings. The only notable departure this summer will be Roberto Firmino, whose contract runs out after the season. While it’s easy to think that a replacement is needed, the recent form of Cody Gakpo to me indicates that the plan always was for him to take the role that Firmino has played so well for the past seasons. He has linked up play brilliantly, can drive forwards with the ball, is a good presser and is also a threat in front of goal. And with Nunez having a first season which is better than most people give him credit for, and hopefully getting even better next season, the new attacking signings are also important for the evolution of Liverpool’s forward line.
Salah is also still going strong, both in front of goal and in a playmaking sense. Diaz has had a tough season with a long term injury, but judging by the minutes he’s had since returning it doesn’t look like he’s lost a step. Diogo Jota recently broke his goal drought and is a player who has the ability to score a goal even when having a poor game, which is a very valuable quality to have. With the recent additions of Nunez and Gakpo, both of which are will play an important role in the team next season, the Liverpool attack are looking strong enough in my eyes. And that’s without taking into account that Harvey Elliott and Fabio Carvalho are capable of stepping up in the forward positions if needed, along with Ben Doak who looks to have a very bright future.
IN: None
OUT: Roberto Firmino (End of contract)
SUMMARY
In the end, that will leave Liverpool with this summer transfer window:
PLAYERS IN FEE Bart Verbruggen £10m Evan Ndicka FREE Moises Caicedo £80m Manuel Ugarte £50m Ryan Gravenberch £25m TOTAL £165m
PLAYERS OUT FEE Caoimhín Kelleher £20m Adrian FREE Joel Matip £13m Arthur Melo End of loan Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain End of contract Naby Keita End of contract Roberto Firmino End of contract TOTAL £33m
An outlay of just less than £150m is nothing less than what Liverpool should expect if they want to get the squad rebuild properly going. There’s still more to be done, but this is probably as much as can be expected to be done this summer, and would end up with the following 25-man squad for the 2023/24 season (Brackets = u21 players who doesn’t need to be registered):
GOALKEEPER
Alisson Becker, Bart Verbruggen, (Marcelo Pitaluga)
DEFENCE
Trent Alexander-Arnold, Virgil van Dijk, Ibrahima Konate, Joe Gomez, Evan Ndicka, Nathaniel Phillips, Andy Robertson, Kostas Tsimikas, (Calvin Ramsay)
MIDFIELD
Fabinho, Thiago, Moises Caicedo, Manuel Ugarte, Ryan Gravenberch, Stefan Bajectic, Jordan Henderson, Curtis Jones, James Milner, (Harvey Elliott, Fabio Carvalho)
ATTACK
Mohamed Salah, Luis Diaz, Cody Gakpo, Darwin Nunez, Diogo Jota, (Ben Doak)
*xG numbers courtesy of Understat.com