UFC 294 - Switcheroo

UFC 294 marks the return to Abu Dhabi, and once again Islam Makhachev is part of the main event. We’re also seeing Khamzat Chimaev for the first time in over a year, but we saw some big changes two weeks out from the event.

Main event: Islam Makhachev (C) vs. Alexander Volkanovski (C FW)

Islam Makhachev was originally preparing for a rematch from last years Abu Dhabi card, where he claimed the lightweight title after submitting Charles Oliveira, but unfortunately Oliveira had to pull out after sustaining a nasty cut above the eye. There will still be a rematch for the lightweight champion though, as Alexander Volkanovski steps in on 11 days notice to try to avenge his loss to Makhachev earlier this year in Australia. Straight after the fight in February Volkanovski told Makhachev that they should do it again, but in Makhachev’s backyard this time, so it looks like he got his wish even sooner than he thought.

When they fought to a decision at UFC 284 in Perth it was a very close, and a lot of people actually had Volkanovski winning. A second fight definitely made sense at some point, but with Volkanovski currently holding the belt at 145lbs the UFC also has to take the featherweight title schedule into account. Though not officially announced, Volkanovski was basically confirmed to defend his belt against Ilia Topuria in January and based on what he is saying, that is still the plan not matter the outcome at UFC 294.

All logic tells me that Islam will get it done again. He has got the home advantage, longer rehydration time compared to Australia, and of course the fact that Volkanovski is taking the fight in 11 days notice. I just can’t get myself to doubt Volkanovski anymore. Even in a loss against Islam he showed that can more than hang with the ligtweight champion, and although he wasn’t scheduled for a bout, it wouldn’t surprise me if he was preparing for this scenario just in case something came up. My head tells me that we will hear “and still” come Saturday night, but I have this weird gut feeling that Volkanovski catches Islam with something and puts him away. No matter the outcome though, I have no doubt we’re in for another brilliant fight between two of the greatest fighters in the world.

Co-main event: Kamaru Usman (1 WW) vs. Khamzat Chimaev (4 WW)

But the main events wasn’t the only fight who had some shake-ups happen in the weeks leading up to the event. A middleweight bout between Paulo Costa and Khamzat Chimaev was originally scheduled for the co-main event, but Costa had to pull out as the doctors wouldn’t clear him to fight after an elbow surgery. There had been some bad blood brewing for quite some time between Costa and Chimaev, but that will have to be settled another time and we will all be there to watch it.

For now though, it’s another welterweight moving up who will stand in Borz’s way, as the former champion Kamaru Usman is moving up to face the undefeated prospect. It’s a fight that all fans wanted to see at welterweight when Usman was the champion, but now we’re seeing it one weight class up in order to determine the next challenger for Sean Strickland, at least in Dana White’s own words. I still believe that Dricus du Plessis should get the next shot at the champion, but ever since we saw Chimaev on fight island most were pretty certain that it was only a matter of time before he would challenge for UFC gold, so it’s no surprise that the UFC will want to see him in the title picture.

As for who will win the fight, I think this is a way easier pick than the main event. Usman is one of the best welterweight of all time and still a very good fighter, but the trilogy fight against Edwards in March made it seem like he has regressed slightly. That could just be a stylistic thing, with Edwards being a more methodical fighter than Chimaev on the feet, and not the easiest puzzle for Usman to figure out, but when you’re struggling to get down and hold down Edwards (with all due respect, as Edwards’ grappling is quite underrated in my opinion) I can’t see him having much success against Chimaev either. I can see Chimaev stopping Usman early, either on the feet or on the ground, as I think he has the advantage on both fronts at this point of their careers.

What was originally looking to be a phenomenal main and co-main in Abu Dhabi has perhaps gotten even better. While I love Charles Oliveira, and was very much looking forward to the rematch between him and Makhachev to see the improvements Oliveira had made both in skill and gameplan, I think Volkanovski is a more intriguing fight.

In the co-main I would actually have preferred to see Costa vs. Chimaev, just because Costa is actually an established middleweight, and it would perhaps give us a clearer picture as to where Chimaev stands in the middleweight landscape. The Usman fight is very good, don’t get me wrong, but it doesn’t get me as hyped as it would’ve done when Usman was at the top of his game at welterweight.

I’m still absolutely pumped for this card though. There’s so many storylines, and the main card looks very fun, with some bangers sprinkled in on the prelims as well. And as a bonus, it’s on at primetime in the UK!