UFC 295 - Heavy Hitters

Whenever the UFC takes over NYC and Madison Square Garden, it’s usually spectacular. From McGregor becoming double champ to Masvidal winning the BMF belt and some absolutely incredible wars along the way. This year looks to be no different.

There was a huge switch up at the top of the card, with heavyweight champion, and one of the greatest of all time, Jon Jones pulling out of his scheduled fight with Stipe Miocic because of an injury. Stipe has said that he is only interested in the legacy fight with Jones, but with an injury that will reportedly keep the champ out for up to a year, what do the UFC do? They call on two of the most highly touted prospects (well, prospects in terms of MMA at least) to compete for an interim belt. Sergei Pavlovich, who were supposedly preparing to be the backup for Jones vs Miocic, is taking on Tom Aspinall in what is (to me at least) a more intriguing matchup than the original one. Jones vs Miocic were purely a legacy fight, where no matter what happened there were a high likelihood that both would retire afterwards. Both Pavlovich and Aspinall are amongst the new breed of heavyweight fighters, well rounded mixed martial artists who can move quicker, be more elusive but at the same time retain that power that makes us all very excited to watch heavyweight MMA.

While Pavlovich has godly power, and is on a 6 fight knockout streak with all coming in the first round, I don’t think he’s fought anyone with the movement and slickness of Tom Aspinall before. I still think the display against Alexander Volkov at UFC London is one of the most impressive performances I have seen from a heavyweight, where he didn’t have a problem with Volkov’s striking and once it got to the ground, the Russian didn’t really have an answer. Pavlovich is coming off an equally impressive performance against Curtis Blaydes though where he managed to keep the fight standing, clipping Blaydes with a huge shot before finishing him with ground and pound. Blaydes didn’t really shoot many takedowns, but the fact is that Pavlovich managed to keep the fight in his wheelhouse. Standing with Pavlovich isn’t necessarily a good idea, as Aspinall himself has said, but he is also so much quicker and smarter on the feet than any of Pavlovich’s other opponents, so if anyone can do it, it is Aspinall. I might be slightly biased on this one because I live in the UK, but I favour Aspinall to get this done. No matter who wins though, I’ll be gobsmacked if this fight goes the distance, or even out of the first two rounds for that matter.

But that’s not even the main event. Because The original main event where switched up, the Co-main was boosted up to the main event slot, and it’s another absolute banger of a fight. The vacant light heavyweight title is on the line (for the third time in a year) when former champion Jiri Prochazka takes on the former middleweight champion Alex Pereira. I can’t even begin to describe my excitement for this fight, and it’s probably the fight I’ve been wanting to see the most since it was announced that Pereira is moving up to light heavyweight. It is very likely that this becomes a stand up battle, and I think it’s almost impossible to predict exactly how this fight will go.

While Prochazka is the more chaotic and wild striker out of the two, Pereira’s kickboxing is much more traditional and calculated, but these factors could work in two ways. Prochazka is very unorthodox with his striking, and with Pereira being used to defending against more fundamental techniques there is definitely a chance that Prochazka could catch him with something crazy like a flying knee or spinning elbow. On the flipside he leaves his chin wide open in most exchanges, which against such a polished striker like Pereira could be a death sentence. That left hook of his is like a sniper and could easily find Prochazka’s chin if he isn’t careful enough. If we are to talk about the ground game, I think Prochazka has the advantage, but I’m not sure if they will end up there if not for a knockdown or an off balance slip rather than any of them going for a takedown. Prochazka’s unpredictability is mostly what makes me so conflicted about this fight, as he could just as easily find the knockout as being knocked out himself. I feel like logically I should lean towards Pereira, but Prochazka has some crazy ability to take shots and get rocked but somehow get through it and come out as the victor. I am gonna pick Prochazka to get it done but that is not a confident pick by any means, which is also what I love about both the main and co-main event. When you have no idea what is going to happen and which way the fight is going to go, that adds so much excitement for me, and is one of the things that makes this sport so great.

If I had to pick another fight to single out from this card it would definitely be Matt Frevola vs Benoit Saint-Denis. There’s other great fights on this card for sure, but I think Frevola vs Saint-Denis has the potential to be even more exciting than the main and co-main, which says a lot. Neither of them are scared to get into a scrap, and they’re never involved in boring fights. You often hear fights like this referred to as “the people’s main event”, and while that has been Michael Chandler’s spot for the last two MSG cards, I think this fight is more than capable of picking up that mantle. The funny thing is that this is another pick’em fight, at least the way I see it. Frevola is super explosive and has some serious power in his hands, but Saint-Denis can also crack and will perhaps have the advantage in the grappling department. I am leaning Saint-Denis, but Frevola making a statement in his hometown would also be quite special.

I wrote in an article a few weeks ago that the UFC’s end to the year looked like a home-run if they managed to keep all the fights together, and since then three out of four main/co-main events have been changed. Makhachev vs Oliveira 2 became Makhachev vs Volkanovski 2, Costa vs Chimaev became Usman vs Chimaev and now Jones vs Miocic became Pavlovich vs Aspinall. And who knows what will happen with Edwards vs Covington or Pantoja vs Royval next month, it’s a crazy sport after all. Despite all this though, I think the UFC have done a brilliant job at saving those big PPV cards with equally intriguing fights that the fans are excited about. The big fights in Abu Dhabi lived up to the expectations, and I have no doubt that even though fans may be disappointed that they won’t see Jon Jones compete, they will still get their money’s worth from this new card.

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