UFC 298 - Changing of the guard?
Two fighters who are undefeated in the featherweight division are set to face off in the main event at UFC 298. Whittaker is looking to get back on track, while Ian Machado Garry is looking to silence his critics.
While Alexander Volkanovski has recently lost 2 times to lightweight champion Islam Makhachev, he is still undefeated at 145lbs. Same can be said for his opponent Ilia Topuria, who is a perfect 14-0 as a mixed martial artist, and in many people’s eyes the man to dethrone the dominant champion. It’s an incredibly intriguing matchup between two well-rounded fighters, and while they’re both skilled strikers with knockout power, they’re both good on the ground as well, albeit in different aspects. Volkanovski is probably the better wrestler, and his control and ground and pound is his main grappling threat. Topuria on the other hand, started off as a jiu-jitsu fighter, and has already shown in the UFC that he can do it against high level guys after submitting Bryce Mitchell a little over a year ago.
The whole ‘35 years old’ stat has been doing the rounds recently, and while you can’t quite deny the numbers, if anyone was to defy them it would be the Aussie. He has looked utterly flawless against every 145’er he’s been up against, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he put on another masterclass on Saturday night. Because although Topuria has been sensational in every fight so far in the UFC, none more so than the absolute shutout of Josh Emmett in his last fight, he has never fought anyone of Volkanovski’s quality. We have seen recently with the likes of Islam Makhachev, Sean Strickland and Leon Edwards that you don’t necessarily have to have the resumé as long as you have the skills, and that may very well be the case with Topuria as well. I would still hold Volkanovski as a slight favourite, but this is as good of a matchup as the UFC could’ve possibly put together.
Robert Whittaker is looking to get his name back into title contention after losing to Dricus Du Plessis last summer, but he hasn’t got an easy task on his hand. Paulo Costa hasn’t been the most active fighter across the last few years, but whenever he does fight, it’s usually a fun time. Of course, there is always the question of whether Costa actually turns up or not, and also which version of Costa that is. We know what we get from Whittaker, but whether we get the Marvin Vettori version of Paulo Costa or the Luke Rockhold version is another question (Not that he was flawless against Rockhold, but Salt Lake altitude tax is also in play there). I’m honestly just anticipating a very fun fight between two top middleweights, and I expect Whittaker to get the job done, likely by decision.
Two people who won’t be looking to go to a decision is Geoff Neal and Ian Machado Garry. There’s obviously some history there, with Garry showing up to a press conference with Geoff Neal’s mugshot on a t-shirt, and Neal subsequently having to pull out of the matchup due to an injury. There’s been some back-and-forth since then, but now they finally get to throw down in the octagon. Ian Machado Garry is a perfect 6-0 in the UFC with 3 finishes, and has looked quite dominant in most fights so far. He does leave his chin open at times though, and Neal can crack. He gave Shavkat Rakhmonov his toughest test, and although he lost that fight his stock didn’t drop at all. I’m honestly so torn on who to pick here, because for me it all comes down to how emotional Ian Garry is. He has been on the receiving end of a lot of stick lately, but as long as he can control his emotions, I suspect he’ll get his hand raised.
The two remaining fights on the main card is is Merab Dvalishvili vs Henry Cejudo and Anthony Hernandez vs Roman Kopylov. Both of which has the potential to be really exciting for different reasons.
Both Hernandez and Kopylov are on good runs, with 4 wins in a row for both men. Kopylov is a menace on the feet, while Hernandez’ main threat is on the ground. I’ve got Kopylov to win this though, but that is by no means a confident pick.
Merab vs Cejudo is most likely a number 1 contender matchup, and the victor will take on the winner of O’Malley vs Vera. Even though Cejudo’s resumé and credentials are better than most, I just think the relentless pace from Merab will be enough to get him the win here, especially as it’s a 3 rounder. We have seen Merab go 5 rounds with Petr Yan before, so we know he can keep the pace up for 25 minutes as well, but I would’ve given Cejudo more of a chance in a 5 rounder because of his championship experience. Merab would do well to get a finish, and that would put him next in line without a doubt, but we’ve seen with the likes of Belal Muhammad that the UFC often gives the more exciting fighters title shots if they have the chance. I think Merab will get the job done, but unfortunately for him, I also think it will go the distance.
UFC 298 is the start of a great stretch of PPV’s over the next few months, and this one is especially exciting as I personally struggle to confidently pick a winner in any of the main card fights. I think the one I’m most confident in is Robert Whittaker, but even that fight is a 70-30 at best for me. I really look forward to seeing how some of the fights and storylines develop, and it’s great to be back out of the warehouse for the first time in roughly a month!