UFC 283 - Main card preview and predictions

For the first time since before the 2020 lockdown the UFC are back in Brazil, or more specifically Rio de Janeiro. UFC FN: Lee vs. Oliveira in Brasilia was the last event before the world locked down because of the pandemic, but because it was behind locked doors this will be the first time since UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade that fans will be in attendance for a UFC event in Brazil. Naturally the card is stacked full of Brazilian fighters which will feel the backing of a packed Jeunesse Arena on Saturday night. Titles are on the line, we will say farewell to a legend and a few prospects will have the opportunity to really make a statement. So let’s start from the top of the card:

Main event for the light heavyweight title - Glover Teixeira (2) vs. Jamahal Hill (7)

Who would’ve thought this was gonna happen when we went into the UFC 282 LHW title fight last month between Jan Blachowicz and Magomed Ankalaev? In the end though, it does feel like justice for Glover Teixeira. He was supposed to rematch then champion Jiri Prochazka at the aforementioned UFC 282 card, but Jiri had to pull out with a serious shoulder injury, leaving the LHW title vacant. And now Glover has the opportunity to win back the title he lost in Singapore last year, facing a tough, but way less experienced Jamahal Hill. “Sweet dreams” is Hill’s nickname for a reason though, as he has proven to be a very prolific knockout artist. 5 knockouts in his 6 UFC wins is impressive, and he seems to almost have that touch of death, which could prove to be tricky for an ageing Glover Teixeira. On the other hand, Glover took all of Jiri Prochazka’s shots without going down, so he has shown to have a good chin, or at the very least some incredible recovery. Although not a slouch on the feet, Glover will most likely be looking to take the fight to the ground. This is both where he has the biggest advantage, but also the way Hill suffered his lone loss against Paul Craig back in 2021. Teixeira has got the most submissions in UFC LHW history, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him use his experience to weather the early storm and add another submission to his record. Then again, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Hill find Glover’s chin early and putting him out. I honestly can see this fight going both ways so it’s tough to make a confident pick, but I’m slightly leaning towards the younger guy getting it done. 

Prediction: Hill by KO/TKO rd. 2

Co-Main event for the flyweight title - Deiveson Figueiredo (C) vs. Brandon Moreno (IC)

Three times these flyweights have gone at it, and three times we’ve seen a different outcome. Their first fight in 2020 was an incredible back and forth that ultimately ended in a majority draw, meaning it had to be run back. The second fight was more surprising, as Brandon Moreno basically dominated from the first bell, and in the end found a rear naked choke to become the first ever Mexican-born UFC champion. Figueiredo blamed the loss on a bad weight cut, and whether or not this was the main reason for the loss, it definitely seemed like he wasn’t his usual self in that fight. The third fight was more akin to the first one, being a back and forth battle which saw Deiveson Figueiredo win back his title by unanimous decision. With two of the fights being razor close, it’s another difficult one to pick. What I will say though, is that in the third fight Moreno looked to be ahead, but Figueiredo has so much power for a 125’er, and managed to knock down Moreno in order to sway some of the rounds in his favour. And don’t get me wrong, the gap between them wasn’t huge, and Figueiredo is also a sensational fighter, but in terms of pure skill Moreno might be ever so slightly ahead. If he manages to tighten up his defence a little, I think he will have enough to get it done and once again become the flyweight champion. Another thing that might work in Moreno’s favour is that he has been more active, and while Figueiredo hasn’t fought anyone other than Moreno since November 2021, the Mexican went up against Kai Kara-France for the interim title in July, so he has had some different looks and challenges in between the Figueiredo bouts. As I said, I find it difficult to pick between these two, but If I had to put my money on one of them, it would be Moreno.

Prediction: Brandon Moreno by decision

Welterweight bout - Gilbert Burns (5) vs. Neil Magny (12)

So if there’s any Brazilians reading this, they probably haven’t been too happy with my picks so far. Don’t get me wrong, even though I picked the Brazilians to lose I’m not overly confident in any of the picks, as they are incredibly close fights. This one though, I feel pretty confident in. Neil Magny has been on a decent run, and bar two losses to Michael Chiesa and Shavkat Rakhmonov (the latter being to one of the best prospects in the UFC, nevermind the welterweight division), he has won 6 of his last 8. His last fight, a stoppage of Daniel Rodriguez, was very impressive, and he has earned a fight from someone higher up in the rankings. I just think this will be a step too far. While Magny has a long reach and Burns has been susceptible to straight punches in the past, I think he’s just a better fighter overall. Though he lost to Khamzat Chimaev last time out, he gave him one hell of a fight, and a lot of fans thought he could’ve won as well. He is obviously most known for his incredible BJJ skills, but Burns is also very good on the feet, and could pose some serious problems for Magny there too. He might not be looking to actively take the fight to the ground, but I think the fight will end up there at some point, and that is where the fight will end. 

Prediction: Gilbert Burns by submission rd. 3

Women's flyweight bout - Lauren Murphy (5) vs. Jessica Andrade (6)

Though this may look like the most lacklustre fight on the main card, I’m not quite sure. Jessica Andrade rarely puts on a boring fight, and Lauren Murphy is always game and a very tough competitor. Even though women’s flyweight isn’t the deepest, most stacked division in the sport, both of these women have had a shot at the flyweight title in the past two years. Last time Andrade fought in Brazil, she became the strawweight champion after KO’ing Rose Namajunas by slamming her into the canvas. She is one of, if not the hardest hitter in the division, and I could absolutely see a world where she knocks out Lauren Murphy in vicious fashion. On the other hand though, Murphy is more than capable of toughing it out and taking Andrade into deep waters. She doesn’t have too many finishes in the past few years, so if she was to win, a decision seems more likely. I just feel like Andrade is gonna throw everything at her, and even though she might be tough enough to take it, but in the end come up short on the scorecards.

Prediction - Jessica Andrade by decision

Light heavyweight bout - Paul Craig (9) vs. Johnny Walker (12)

I feel like most people would agree that this fight will go one of two ways. Either Paul Craig gets the fight to the ground, either with him on top or pulling guard, and he gets the submission, or Johnny Walker lands something crazy to get the knockout win. I do think Walker’s grappling is better than he gets credit for, but BJJ is Paul Craig’s bread and butter, so I doubt Walker’s game plan will involve too much engagement in the grappling. In Craig’s last fight against Volkan Oezdemir at the second UFC London card of 2022, it just didn’t look like he had a good gameplan. He may have made improvements in his striking since then and became more confident in his hands, but same as with Walker and grappling, Craig probably won’t strike more than necessary to get the fight to the ground. Where Oezdemir was smart and let Craig up whenever he went to the ground, I fear that Walker will let the moment get the better of him and try to find some openings similar to what Nikita Krylov did. He might do, because he is very creative and long for the weight class, but I think the chances are bigger that Craig ties him up in a triangle, an armbar or something of that ilk. I might show some of my UK bias here, but I’m favouring Paul Craig in this one. 

Prediction - Paul Craig by submission rd. 2

To finish off, it would be wrong to not mention the retirement fight of the legend that is Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua. Now, I am not old enough (as an MMA fan at least) to have watched Shogun in his prime, so I probably won’t understand the magnitude of him putting his gloves down in the octagon on Saturday night, but even just reading about him, watching old clips and seeing what his fellow fighters are saying about him makes it clear to me that he is one of the biggest legends of this still young sport. And even though his prime might’ve been before the UFC (which is crazy to say considering he was the light heavyweight champion at one point), he has just beaten a who’s who of MMA icons both in the UFC and of course Pride Fighting Championships in the mid noughties. I would love to see him go out with a win, but that’s not always the way it goes. 

Other notable names down the card are Gregory ‘Robocop’ Rodrigues, Jailton Almeida and Terrance McKinney, all which I favour to get the job done on Saturday night. Robocop might be just on the cusp of a ranking in the middleweight division, and he could be trouble for a lot of guys if he continues to show up like he’s done recently. 

McKinney has been super exciting in his first few fights in the UFC, but came up short last time against Drew Dober. He has a super fun style, and could absolutely pose problems for a lot of guys in the division, but the lightweight division might be the most stacked in the UFC, so just getting a ranking is tough. A win on Saturday would be a good start though, and I think he will get it done.

The last one, and in my opinion the most promising one is Jailton Almeida. Obviously he hasn’t fought the toughest competition in his first three UFC fights, but he looked incredible against all of them. Shamil Abdurakhimov is a clear step up, but I think Almeida could steamroll him and with Shamil being a ranked fighter, that should put Almeida at least at number 15 come next week. It wouldn’t surprise me if he is knocking on the door of the top 5 at the end of the year. 

I’m so pumped for the UFC to return after a few weeks break. Last weekend's fight night card was fine, with a couple of standout performances, but this is where the year really kicks off for me. Seeing the PPV’s back on the road is a welcome sight, and may it continue with some of the fight night cards as well, and I really hope they keep the Apex shows to a minimum going forward! 

As the great Jon Anik would say, “2 MORE SLEEPS!”