UFC 286 preview
For the first time since Michael Bisping defeated Dan Henderson in Manchester at UFC 204, a British champion will defend a UFC title on home soil. Leon Edwards became just the second ever UFC champion from the UK when he landed the greatest headkick ever (sorry, Holly Holm) to dethrone pound for pound number 1 Kamaru Usman in Salt Lake City last August, and now he puts the belt on the line in London against the same man who is looking to take back what was once his. The co-main event needs no further introduction. Two men who are willing to throw down, and if the fight ever hits the mat it’s most likely because of a knockdown rather than a takedown, this has fight of the night (and of the year potentially) written all over it. Along with this there are some fan favourites, prospects and debutants who will excite the British crowd. While UFC London last March was an incredible showcase for British MMA, this may well top it all.
Main event for the UFC Welterweight title: Leon Edwards (C) vs. Kamaru Usman (1)
‘Rocky’ shocked the world when he knocked out Kamaru Usman at UFC 278 last August to claim the welterweight title, and he did it in true Rocky fashion. After having a brilliant first round, being the first man to take Usman to the mat and taking his back in the process, easily put him 10-9 up after round 1. The next 3 rounds were vintage Kamaru Usman, pushing Edwards to the fence and controlling him both in the clinch and on the ground once he took it there. That’s not to say that Edwards didn’t have his moments, he sure did, but Usman’s relentless pressure saw him 39-37 up on the judges scorecards heading into the final round. Edwards was visibly fatigued, both from the pace Usman kept up, but altitude, which Usman is used to, likely played a part as well. The corner work from Dave Lovell between round 4 and 5 will go down in history as one of the greatest ever speeches, and it was probably exactly what Edwards needed in that moment. The rest is history, a beautifully set up headkick sent Usman to the canvas and a new champion was crowned. On top of that, Edwards delivered an all time great post fight speech, emphasising how hard he had worked and the long road he had taken to finally become the champion of the world.
How this fight will go is hard to tell. On one hand, Edwards got comfortably outwrestled in 3 out of the 4 rounds before the knockout, but altitude probably played a big part in that. We saw in the first round when both men were fresh that Edwards can withstand a lot of the grappling offence while also getting a takedown of his own. We also know that Usman is able to set a relentless pace no matter the opponent like we’ve seen against Colby Covington twice. A knockout like that could change the trajectory of a career though, and it’s never easy to know how someone recovers from that. Both men definitely has paths to victory, it just depends who can execute their gameplan better. I’m personally leaning towards Edwards getting it done again, but maybe by decision this time.
Prediction: Leon Edwards by decision
Lightweight co-main event: Justin Gaethje (3) vs. Rafael Fiziev (6)
Violence, violence, violence. That’s all that comes to mind when looking at this excellent co-main event. Justin Gaethje is never in a boring fight, and the same can be said for his opponent Rafael Fiziev. While Gaethje has been in and around the top of the lightweight rankings for a few years, while Fiziev is a relative newcomer to the top of the division. Despite all this, Fiziev is actually the favourite according to the bookmakers, and you can see why. He is one of the best strikers in the division, and for Gaethje to technically outstrike him sounds like a tall order. Not to say he can’t do it, but creating a bit of controlled chaos is probably his best path to victory. We saw in the Michael Chandler fight that he thrives in that environment, and although Chandler hurt him on a couple of occasions, Gaethje always had something to throw back. The leg kick battle will be fun to watch, as that is traditionally one of Gaethje’s greatest weapons. Last time out though, we saw former champion Charles Oliveira deal with them once the fight (however short it was) went on. Someone with the striking experience of Rafael Fiziev will surely have a solution for this as well, and he is also a brilliant kicker himself. When Fiziev fought Bobby Green a couple of years ago, we could visibly see him slow down in the final round, but that issue didn’t seem to be there when he finished Rafael dos Anjos in the fifth round last year. I think Fiziev can get it done within the distance, but seeing how tough both men are, a decision doesn’t seem unlikely either.
Prediction: Rafael Fiziev by KO/TKO rd. 2
Beyond the main and co-main there are quite a few interesting fights to look forward to. Gunnar Nelson is always well received in London, and he faces off against Bryan Barberena who is never in a boring fight. Barberena is coming off a submission loss to Rafael dos Anjos, and with Nelson’s main threat being his grappling it is understandable that he is a heavy favourite.
Prediction: Gunnar Nelson by submission rd. 3
A middleweight clash between Marvin Vettori and Roman Dolidze is a very intriguing one. Vettori is looking to bounce back from a loss against former champion Robert Whittaker, while Dolidze is riding a 4 fight win streak, including a finish of Jack Hermansson last time out. With Pereira dethroning Adesanya, and the rematch going down in a months time, there is time for the next challengers to make their claim to the next title shot. Whittaker is probably next in line, but after that it is anyones game.
Prediction: Marvin Vettori by decision
Undefeated UK prospect Lerone Murphy is finally getting a chance to perform in front of a home crowd as well against UFC newcomer Gabriel Santos. Murphy is currently 3-0-1 in the UFC, with all his fights so far being on Fight Island in Abu Dhabi. Although it is always sad to see someone get injured, I am somewhat glad that Nathaniel Wood and Lerone Murphy didn’t end up fighting each other (at this stage of their career at least). Obviously once you get closer to the title picture you fight whoever you need in order to progress, but I wasn’t a fan of putting two currently unranked UK prospects up against each other, even though it would’ve made on hell of a fight.
Prediction: Lerone Murphy by decision
Speaking of UK prospects, Muhammad Mokaev is looking to continue his unbeaten streak (currently 3-0 in the UFC) with a win over Jafel Filo. With two stoppages in his first three fight, Mokaev quickly made is way into the rankings of the flyweight division, and is still adamant to become the youngest champion in UFC history. We saw in his last outing that there’s still some holes in his game though, but that is to be expected with such a young fighter who will just continue to get better and better.
Prediction: Muhammad Mokaev by submission rd. 2
Jack Shore is moving up to featherweight and is taking on Makwan Amirkhani, who even though he’s from Finland, is a man that knows London better than most fighters. Shore had his first loss last time out against Ricky Simon but is a very good and well rounded fighter, and it will be interesting to see how he adjusts to a new weight class. It worked out well for Nathaniel Wood (who was supposed to fight Lerone Murphy on this card, but had to pull out with an injury), so the 135 to 145 lbs weight class change isn’t uncharted territory for UK fighters in recent times.
Prediction: Jack Shore by decision
These are just a handful of the fights that will take place at the O2 Arena in London on Saturday. It is going to be a wonderful night of mixed martial arts, and the UK fans will turn up as they always do. The two London events last year were incredible, and I’m sure that the fighters will take in the energy from the fans and give them something to cheer for, all the way from the prelims and up until that main event trilogy fight.