UFC 287 preview
For the first time in 20 years, the UFC are back in Miami, Florida. A grudge match between middleweight champion Alex Pereira and former champion Israel Adesanya is set to headline the card, while Gilbert Burns takes on Miami Native Jorge Masvidal in the co-main event. A couple of fight of the night contenders takes place on the main card as well, with Rob Font vs Adrian Yanez and Kevin Holland vs Santiago Ponzinibbio, while 18 years old sensation Raul Rosas jr. opens up the main card against Christian Rodriguez.
MAIN EVENT: Alex Pereira (C) vs Israel Adesanya (1)
Depending if you include their bouts in kickboxing or not, it’s either 1-0 or 3-0 in favour of the champion Alex Pereira heading into this weekends rematch against Israel Adesanya. When they last fought at Madison Square Garden at UFC 281, The then champion Adesanya was on his way to a comfortable decision victory before being caught and TKO’d in the final round. That’s not to say that the fight wasn’t competitive though, as Pereira won the second round, and probably would’ve won the first one as well if Adesanya didn’t rock him badly in the final few seconds of the round. You can argue however much you’d like whether it was an early stoppage or not, but the fact is that Adesanya likely would have been finished badly if the ref didn’t step in at that moment, and Goddard did a good job at protecting the fighter even if Adesanya didn’t agree at the time. Both Pereira and Adesanya are elite kickboxers, and I see a lot of people say that Pereira is merely a power puncher that acts almost like an equaliser to Adesanya’s technique on the feet. I couldn’t disagree more with that. While I agree that Pereira definitely has the power advantage, and the force he generates in his strikes are almost freakish at times, he is also a very technical kickboxer in his own right and where Adesanya might edge it in speed, Pereira edges it when it comes to power. Cannonier, Romero and Costa also had a lot of power (although not as much as Pereira probably), and they were not able to give Adesanya problems the way Pereira has, so it’s clearly not all about power with the Brazilian. We have seen the paths to victory for both fighters, but it will be interesting to see if any of them leans more into the wrestling this time around. Adesanya had success in the third round of their last fight using some of his grappling, but he didn’t have an easy time getting Pereira to the ground. The champion also trains with grappling ace Glover Teixeira, so it would be foolish to think that he won’t pick up a thing or two from the former light heavyweight champion. It’s hard to pick a winner here, as Pereira seems to have Adesanya’s number, but Adesanya looked really good last time out before he got stopped. If I have to put my neck on the line, I’d probably lean slightly towards Adesanya, but I’m sure I’ll change my mind several times before fight night.
Prediction: Israel Adesanya by KO/TKO rd. 4
CO-MAIN EVENT: Gilbert Burns (5) vs Jorge Masvidal (11)
The main event is a sensational spectacle and a storyline that’s not easily matched, but the Miami crowd will probably be the loudest when Gamebred himself walks out to the scarface theme in the co-main event. When the UFC decided that they would head back to Miami, Jorge Masvidal must’ve been one of the first names they wanted on the card, and it’s also a very fun, albeit tough fight for Masvidal. Gilbert Burns is an elite welterweight with the best BJJ in the division, but he’s no slouch on the feet either. The question is whether he wants to stand and bang with someone like Masvidal, who even at the twilight of his career is a very crafty and slick striker. And even though we saw both Usman and Covington take Masvidal down repeatedly, that doesn’t really do his takedown defence justice, because it’s normally very good. That being said though, if it hits the mat, Burns can probably control him and possibly find a submission (even though BJJ ace Demian Maia once said that Masvidal had some very impressive BJJ defence). The bookmakers has Burns as a massive favourite, which is not something I necessarily agree with. I’m not disagreeing with Burns being the favourite, but Masvidal being a 7/2 underdog doesn’t sit right with me. That might look like a silly statement in hindsight, but Burns has looked vulnerable against both Usman and Chimaev on the feet, both being worse strikers than Masvidal, so even though I also favour Burns in this matchup, it wouldn’t shock me massively if Gamebred found an early finish. Ultimately though, I think Burns takes this one, probably on points.
Prediction: Gilbert Burns by decision
MAIN CARD
Rob Font and Adrian Yanez are two of the very best boxers in the bantamweight division, and I expect this fight to showcase both of their skillsets in a wildly entertaining fight. Font has taken a lot of damage in his last two fights against José Aldo and most recently Chito Vera, but they haven’t managed to finish him. We also saw against Chito that he was ahead until he got caught, which ultimately saw him lose the fight. Yanez is more than capable of hurting Font in the same way, but it wouldn’t be surprising if Font managed to keep him at bay with the very solid jab of his. In what looks like a very competitive fight on paper I’m going with Yanez, but Font will have success as well, and I can see it being a hard fought deicision.
Prediction: Adrian Yanez by decision
What I wrote for Font vs Yanez can pretty much be copied and pasted for the fight between Kevin Holland and Santiago Ponzinibbio. Both are very, very good strikers, though Holland especially is a more unconventional type of striker. Holland is also very rangy, which is something he should be looking to utilise because striking in the pocket with Ponzinibbio is a dangerous game. We saw him TKO Alex Morono in his last fight, so while he’s not as quick and snappy as he once was, the power is definitely still there. I still think Holland will get this done though, and I’m not putting too much stock into his last two fights, losses to Khamzat Chimaev (on 1 days notice) and Stephen Thompson. Chimaev could ragdoll almost anyone, and in a pure striking match Wonderboy is possibly the toughest fight in the division. I don’t think this fight goes the distance, but I’m betting on it being sensational for as long as it lasts.
Prediction: Kevin Holland by KO/TKO rd. 2
Raul Rosas jr. is a sensation, no doubt about it. He’s had less than 3 minutes inside the UFC octagon (in addition to his dominant decision on Dana White’s contender series) and he’s already opening up the main card on a major PPV. The sky high potential is undeniable, I just hope the UFC don’t push him too far too soon as we’ve seen with quite a few prospects in the past. This should be a tough, albeit very winnable fight for Rosas jr. though. Christian Rodriguez has a solid 8-1 record and is coming of an anaconda submission victory in his last fight, showing he is clearly capable on the ground, which is also Rosas jr.’s bread and butter. We did see some weaknesses in Rodriguez’s takedown defence though, which is something that will no doubt be exploited by the teenager. On paper it should be a way tougher fight than the UFC debut for Rosas jr., but it wouldn’t surprise me if he got it done in the first round, and ultimately I think that is what I’ll go for.
Prediction: Raul Rosas jr. by submission rd. 1
The prelims and early prelims also has some fun fights on there, with Kelvin Gastelum vs Chris Curtis, Gerald Meerschaert vs Joe Pyfer and Ignacio Bahamondes vs Trey Ogden. There’s also some familiar faces like Michelle Waterson and Cynthia Calvillo competing on the card so there’s a ton of fights to get excited for, all culminating in the rematch (or quadrilogy if you want) between Alex Pereira and Israel Adesanya. The UFC really keeps on delivering the goods in 2023, in what has been a sensational run of PPV’s with some great fight nights sprinkled in between.